Pfizer

Pfizer's RSV vaccine Abrysvo had a rocky commercial launch compared to GSK's Arexvy which got to market first and captured a lot of the initial physician mindshare. The CDC's ACIP recommendation process really matters in this market and being second mover cost them significant share in year one. Year two numbers will be a real test of whether they can close that gap.

Has anyone dug into the Nurtec ODT and Zavzpret situation in migraine? Pfizer acquired those assets through the Biohaven deal and I'm curious whether that franchise is actually gaining traction against AbbVie's Ubrelvy and the established CGRP preventives like Aimovig.

Paxlovid revenue went from $18.9B in 2022 to under $2B last year and there's no clear replacement product at that scale anywhere in the near-term pipeline. Management keeps talking about cost cuts but they're still sitting on bloated SG&A from the covid buildout. This is a show-me story for at least another two years.

Does anyone have a good breakdown of how much of Pfizer's current revenue is coming from Eliquis versus their own internally developed products? I know the BMS profit-sharing arrangement on Eliquis is complex and that royalty stream eventually winds down.

People keep writing off Prevnar but global pneumococcal vaccine demand is still growing especially in emerging markets and Prevnar 20 is expanding the adult indication nicely. Vaccines is one of the most defensible businesses in pharma and Pfizer basically has a toll road in pneumococcal. This segment alone is worth more than the current multiple implies.

Pfizer's oncology pipeline is genuinely underappreciated right now. The Seagen acquisition gives them a best-in-class ADC platform and PADCEV plus TUKYSA are already growing double digits. Investors are so fixated on the Paxlovid cliff they're ignoring what could be a $10B+ oncology business by 2030.

Pfizer announced today that the FDA accepted their supplemental BLA for danuglipron, their oral GLP-1 small molecule candidate, though they paused the once-daily formulation development earlier due to liver enzyme elevations in a subset of patients. They're now advancing a twice-daily version through trials. This puts them in direct competition with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide.

Pfizer's net debt position after the Seagen deal is uncomfortable and they suspended share buybacks to pay it down. Dividend is currently yielding around 6% which sounds great until you realize that payout ratio is stretched and any further revenue disappointment makes a cut at least a conversation worth having. I'd want to see two or three quarters of clean free cash flow before trusting this setup.