Daily Market Rundown — WEDNESDAY, JULY 8, 2026
SENTIMENT
BEARISH
-38
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
Geopolitical shock drives oil surge, equity selloff, and risk-off rotation.
MACRO
-52
BEARISH
- Trump declares Iran ceasefire over; WTI +5.4% on Hormuz supply risk
- 10Y yield 4.48% (-1bp) but Bloomberg reports bond yields spiked on geopolitical shock
- Broad USD index 120.69 (-0.46) — dollar softening limits safe-haven offset
- STL Financial Stress -0.6445 (+0.31 vs prior) — stress rising from recent lows
EQUITIES
-42
BEARISH
- VIX 18.1 (Normal but elevated intraday on Iran news)
- Fear & Greed 43/100 — Fear zone
- Pre-market gappers skew heavily negative: 8 down vs 2 up; semis cluster -5% to -12%
- European bourses DAX -2.06%, CAC -2.00%, FTSE -1.38% — broad risk-off
CREDIT
-18
NEUTRAL
- HY OAS 2.72% (-2bps vs prior) — credit spreads still tight, modest improvement
- IG OAS 0.75% (unchanged) — investment-grade stable
- 2s10s spread +0.36pp (+1bp) — curve gently steepening, not alarming
WATCHING: WTI crudeStrait of Hormuz10Y yieldHY OASVIX
MACRO OVERVIEW
Dive Deeper
- S&P 500 futures at 7,480.50, -0.9%; Nasdaq 100 futures at 29,016.25, -1.3% as Iran ceasefire collapse drives broad risk-off.
- Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over after strikes on 80+ Iranian sites and revocation of oil-sale waivers; WTI surged 5.4% to $74.27, rattling global equity markets.
- No material earnings reporters this session.
- No guidance revisions issued this session.
- No high-importance analyst actions this session.
- Iran-Hormuz escalation is the dominant unresolved risk at the open — nine laden tankers await safe passage; any Strait closure would amplify the oil spike and equity drawdown.
- No tier-1 data today; focus shifts to geopolitical developments and oil price trajectory.
- Kalshi unemployment-above-4.5% contract surged to 50% (+48 pts vs prior) and jobs-added-above-175k contract hit 50% (+44 pts) — prediction markets repricing labor outlook sharply amid macro uncertainty.
- Energy outperforming on Iran supply shock; semis and tech lagging sharply as yesterday's chipmaker selloff extends into today's session.
- 10Y yield at 4.48% (-1bp); Broad USD index 120.69 (-0.46); softer dollar provides limited equity cushion against geopolitical headwinds.
- SPX futures 7,480 is the level to watch at the open — a break below yesterday's close accelerates the semi-led selloff into broader index territory.
GEOPOLITICALENERGYRISK-OFF
FEAR & GREED
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High reading = Caution
VIX — VOLATILITY
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High = Panic / Stress
PUT / CALL RATIO
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High = High Pessimism
BUFFETT INDICATOR
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High = Market Overvalued
GLOBAL INDICES
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MARKET THEMES
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Energy complex surging as Iran ceasefire collapse threatens Strait of Hormuz supply; oil names outperform at the open.
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Semiconductor sector in broad distribution — AI rotation fears and geopolitical risk compounding yesterday's chipmaker selloff.
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Chinese tech outperforming as Hang Seng jumps 2.99%; Alibaba best day in 10 months as investors rotate into less-stretched valuations.
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South Korean equities entered bear territory overnight as AI competition narrative and excessive leverage unwind simultaneously.
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Small-cap Russell 2000 macro tailwinds intact — floating-rate borrowers benefit from easing inflation and Goldilocks jobs backdrop despite today's risk-off.
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Gold dropping despite geopolitical shock as rate-hike fears on oil-driven inflation offset traditional safe-haven bid.
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US-China AI distillation dispute escalating — Alibaba banning Anthropic tools; national security framing raises risk of further tech decoupling.
STOCKS IN PLAY
RIVN
-12.25%
—
Rivian announced 75M share offering to satisfy DOE loan agreement — dilution-driven selloff
Discuss →
AMAT
-8.00%
—
Semiconductor sector rotation and geopolitical risk-off driving broad semi complex lower; RVOL 1.5x confirms institutional selling
Discuss →
LRCX
-7.94%
—
Semiconductor equipment names under pressure in sympathy with sector-wide semi selloff; RVOL 1.1x
Discuss →
MU
-6.27%
—
Micron caught in semiconductor sector rotation amid AI-chip de-risking and geopolitical uncertainty; RVOL 1.4x
Discuss →
MRVL
-5.76%
—
Marvell dragged lower in broad semiconductor complex selloff; RVOL 1.4x confirms elevated distribution
Discuss →
ARM
-5.06%
—
ARM Holdings selling off with semiconductor peers on AI rotation concerns and geopolitical risk-off; RVOL 1.4x
Discuss →
NET
+4.70%
—
Cloudflare bucking the tape to the upside; RVOL 3x signals strong institutional interest against a risk-off backdrop
Discuss →
USO
+5.40%
—
Trump declares Iran ceasefire over after strikes on 80+ sites; Strait of Hormuz supply risk drives oil fund sharply higher
Discuss →
PRE-MARKET GAPPERS — ±3%+
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How Gappers Are Calculated
Universe
~120 liquid US stocks and ETFs scanned on every refresh.
~120 liquid US stocks and ETFs scanned on every refresh.
Gap threshold
Only stocks moving ±3% or more are shown. Gap = (today's open − previous close) ÷ previous close — classic gap-at-open definition.
Only stocks moving ±3% or more are shown. Gap = (today's open − previous close) ÷ previous close — classic gap-at-open definition.
RVOL (Relative Volume)
Today's volume ÷ yesterday's full-day volume. RVOL 2x means the stock has already traded twice yesterday's total — a strong conviction signal.
Today's volume ÷ yesterday's full-day volume. RVOL 2x means the stock has already traded twice yesterday's total — a strong conviction signal.
Session logic
Uses today's EOD bar when available. If today's session data is not yet finalized, falls back to the most recent completed trading day vs the day before it.
Uses today's EOD bar when available. If today's session data is not yet finalized, falls back to the most recent completed trading day vs the day before it.
RVOL color codes
Red ≥5x · Gold ≥2x · Green ≥1x · Gray = below average volume.
Red ≥5x · Gold ≥2x · Green ≥1x · Gray = below average volume.
Data source
Massive (formerly Polygon.io) EOD aggregates via official client. Covers ~12,000 US equities. Refreshed every 5 minutes.
Massive (formerly Polygon.io) EOD aggregates via official client. Covers ~12,000 US equities. Refreshed every 5 minutes.
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EARNINGS REPORTS
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PREDICTION MARKETS — KALSHI ODDS
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR — NEXT 7 DAYS
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WEEK AHEAD
Wed Jul 8 — Iran ceasefire collapse; Hormuz supply risk; no tier-1 US data
Watch: Strait of Hormuz tanker developments and any Iranian response to US strikes
Watch: NATO Istanbul summit Day 2 — Trump-Zelenskyy bilateral; Patriot systems discussion
Watch: Kalshi labor market contracts repricing — unemployment and jobs-added contracts moved 44-48 pts