Micron

Micron's 1-gamma DRAM node is the most advanced DRAM process in production anywhere in the world right now and they got there before Samsung and SK Hynix. That's a complete reversal from where they were five years ago and the market hasn't fully priced in the implications for their cost structure.

Watching Micron trade at a significant discount to SK Hynix on a forward earnings basis is fascinating given that Micron now arguably has the more diversified geographic manufacturing base and arguably better process technology. The Korea premium used to make sense but I'm not sure it still does.

Does anyone have a good breakdown of what percentage of Micron's NAND business is QLC versus TLC right now? Trying to understand their data center SSD competitive positioning against Samsung 990 Pro and Kioxia in the enterprise segment.

It's interesting that Micron keeps guiding gross margins higher each quarter as HBM mix increases, but the NAND segment is still basically a drag. They're almost running two completely different businesses with opposite margin profiles under one roof right now.

PC and smartphone DRAM demand is still soft and those two end markets make up a massive chunk of Micron's revenue base. Everyone is laser-focused on HBM and data center but the bread-and-butter consumer segments aren't recovering as fast as the bulls want to believe.

Micron has significant exposure to China revenue and the ongoing chip export restrictions plus potential retaliatory measures from Beijing are a real overhang that doesn't get discussed enough. China's Cyberspace Administration previously flagged Micron products as a national security risk and barred them from critical infrastructure purchases.

Micron reported fiscal Q2 2025 revenue of approximately 8.05 billion dollars, beating consensus estimates, with data center revenue now representing the largest single segment for the first time in company history. HBM revenue alone tripled sequentially and management raised full year guidance citing continued AI infrastructure buildout.

Micron's HBM3E shipments to Nvidia for the H200 and upcoming Blackwell systems are just getting started and they're already capacity constrained through 2025. Samsung is still struggling with HBM yields and SK Hynix can't supply everyone, so Micron is perfectly positioned to grab meaningful share in the highest-margin memory segment that's ever existed.

Micron officially received the first tranche of CHIPS Act funding from the Commerce Department, roughly 6.1 billion dollars to support fab construction in Idaho and New York. The New York greenfield fab in Clay is targeting leading-edge DRAM production with the first phase expected to come online later this decade.

How should I think about Micron's LP-DDR5 opportunity in on-device AI smartphones versus the traditional DRAM upgrade cycle? Apple reportedly uses Micron DRAM in some iPhone configurations and the AI phone narrative seems like it could be a real demand catalyst.

Everyone is modeling HBM demand based on current hyperscaler capex levels but if the AI infrastructure spending cycle peaks or even plateaus, Micron's most bullish demand driver disappears fast. The stock is priced for perfection on an assumption that Nvidia GPU shipments keep compounding indefinitely.