Ford

Ford Model e lost over $5 billion last year and the losses are accelerating, not decelerating. They keep saying the EV unit will be profitable by some future date but those goalposts have moved multiple times already. At some point the market has to price in that Ford's EV strategy may never generate positive returns.

Ford's warranty and quality costs remain a significant drag that doesn't get enough attention. They spent roughly $7 billion on warranty expenses in 2023, which is staggeringly high for any manufacturer. The Lincoln brand also continues to punch below its weight in the luxury segment compared to what GM is doing with Cadillac's Escalade and Lyriq lineup.

What's the realistic bull case for Ford Model e becoming profitable and over what time horizon? I've seen management say 2026 but they've also walked back prior targets. Is there any scenario where the EV unit becomes a genuine contributor to group earnings or is it permanently a drag that gets managed down?

Does anyone have a strong view on how the new tariff environment hits Ford specifically versus GM? Ford has more domestic US assembly for its highest-volume trucks but sources a ton of components from Mexico including for the Maverick and Bronco Sport. Trying to understand if this is a net positive or negative for them relative to peers.

It's genuinely interesting that Ford chose to keep its ICE and EV businesses as separate reporting segments rather than integrating them, which gives investors unusually clear visibility into where money is made and lost. Most other legacy OEMs blend everything together and you can't see the EV losses as clearly. Ford's transparency here is either confidence or a deliberate choice to show the market they're being honest about the transition costs.

Ford's software and services revenue is a legitimate growth story that most people are ignoring. The Ford Pro Intelligence platform — telematics, uptime analytics, fleet management subscriptions — is generating high-margin recurring revenue from commercial customers. This is the kind of business model shift that takes time to show up in earnings but re-rates the stock when it does.

The F-Series has been the best-selling vehicle in America for 47 consecutive years and I see nothing on the horizon that changes that. Ram is perpetually gaining share in headlines but F-150 retail sales remain dominant and the Super Duty backlog among commercial buyers is still strong. Ford's brand loyalty in trucks is a genuine moat that doesn't show up on a balance sheet.

Ford cut its full-year guidance citing warranty reserve increases and the tariff uncertainty, which is not a great combination when you're already trying to fund an EV turnaround. The adjusted EBIT guidance reduction was meaningful and analysts are now scrambling to reset numbers. This is not a company that should be trading at any premium to historical multiples.

Ford and SK On have restructured their BlueOval SK battery plant agreements, with Ford scaling back the Kentucky facility investment amid weaker-than-expected EV demand. The company has also delayed the electric three-row SUV that was supposed to launch in 2025. These moves suggest Ford is taking a more cautious approach to EV capex than originally outlined at their investor day.

Ford has resumed employee pricing for all customers through a promotional program in response to tariff-related market uncertainty, mirroring a tactic they used during the early pandemic period to sustain volume. The move is designed to pull forward retail demand before any potential price increases hit the showroom. It's a short-term volume play but it will compress near-term transaction price data.

Ford Pro is the most underappreciated segment in the entire auto sector right now. Commercial van and truck fleet operators are locked into the Super Duty and Transit ecosystem in ways that are incredibly sticky, and EBIT margins in that segment have been running above 15%. The market keeps pricing Ford like a legacy OEM in decline but Ford Pro alone is worth more than the current enterprise value in my model.