Chevron

Chevron's new energies segment keeps getting mentioned in every earnings call but the actual capital allocation toward lower-carbon projects is tiny relative to the total capex budget. Their carbon capture and hydrogen ambitions look more like PR positioning than a real business line at this point, which could become a liability if the energy transition accelerates faster than they're planning for.

People are sleeping on the Permian Basin production numbers. Chevron is targeting over 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from the Permian by 2025 and their cost structure out there is genuinely competitive with anyone in the basin. Even without Hess, the organic growth story here is solid.

Chevron's downstream refining margins have compressed badly compared to where they were in 2022 and 2023. The Richmond refinery and the El Segundo facility are operating in a very different crack spread environment now and that segment is going to be a drag on earnings through at least mid-year.

Chevron has raised its dividend for 37 consecutive years and the current yield is sitting around 4.2 percent at these price levels. For a major integrated oil company with that kind of balance sheet and free cash flow generation, it's hard to argue the income side of the thesis is broken regardless of what happens with Hess.

Chevron's balance sheet is one of the cleanest in the majors with a debt-to-capital ratio well below peers and over $6 billion in cash. If Hess arbitration goes against them and the deal dies, they could redeploy that capital into buybacks aggressively and the stock probably rips on clarity alone.

Does anyone have a good read on how Chevron's TCO project in Kazakhstan is performing after all the cost overruns and delays? The Tengiz expansion was supposed to be a major production contributor and I haven't seen clean numbers on where they actually stand.

Chevron announced plans to cut up to 20 percent of its global workforce as part of a broader cost reduction initiative aimed at saving $2 to $3 billion annually by end of 2026. The cuts are hitting both corporate functions and operational segments, and some of the reductions are concentrated in Houston and California.

Chevron's acquisition of Hess is still in limbo as ExxonMobil and CNOOC press their arbitration claim over preferential rights to the Stabroek block in Guyana. The Hess deal was supposed to be Chevron's biggest growth catalyst, giving them a stake in one of the most prolific deepwater discoveries in decades, and now the whole thing hinges on arbitrators.